Greece and Portuguese Q3 GDP due as markets await US employment report
By Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)
Yesterday?s bleak prognosis of the European economy by the ECB appears to have spilt opinion in some parts of Europe with some saying that the bank is too pessimistic on the outlook for next year and into 2014.
The more optimistic outlook eschewed by some will ring rather hollow when today?s latest Greek and Portuguese GDP numbers are published with Greece GDP expected to show a 7.2% Y/Y contraction and Portugal GDP a 3.4% Y/Y contraction.
Today is also the deadline for voluntary private sector participation in the Greek debt buyback, the success of which is dependant on IMF involvement.
While yesterday?s October German factory orders may well have given cause for some optimism the reality is that the numbers were still pretty poor and the industrial production figures for October due later this morning are expected to a decline of 1.5% year on year.
The UK economy is in no better state as yesterday?s disappointing October trade numbers will testify, and today?s October manufacturing and industrial production aren?t expected to be any better given the early indications from some of the PMI data seen so far.
Manufacturing production is expected to show a decline of -0.2% month on month, while industrial production is expected to show again of 0.8%.
Moving across the pond and the US November employment report is expected to show a sharp drop in the number of jobs added, however the numbers are expected to be skewed sharply by the effects of Hurricane Sandy, at the beginning of November.
We?ve already seen the effects of these events with the weekly jobless claims in the last 4 weeks with a sharp rise to 440k soon after and gradual decline since then, culminating in yesterday?s drop to 370k.
October?s non farm payrolls number of 171k could well contrast sharply with a sharp drop below the 100k mark to about 80k for November, while it would not be a surprise to see a sharp revision in the October number as well, to really confuse matters further.
It would be premature to read too much into a low number for last month given recent events, certainly with respect to any further Fed action next week, where there is an expectation that the Fed could well signal further asset purchases in addition to the already $40bn of MBS as the bank gears to a decision as to whether it will replace the $45bn a month ?operation twist? which expires this month.
The unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 7.9%.
EURUSD ? the potential for a pullback was there and that?s what we got yesterday as the euro slid through 1.3040 and could well now head back towards the 50 day MA at 1.2915, having failed to overcome the 1.3175 resistance area.
For the downside to open up again we need to see a break back below the 50 day MA and 1.2900 retargets a move towards the 200 day MA at 1.2790, while below that we also have trend line support from the 1.2050 lows which also comes in at 1.2795.
GBPUSD ? the support at the 50 day MA at 1.6040 has held so far but could well give way after the failure to get above the 1.6120 level yesterday.
A drop and close back through 1.6040 undermines the recent bullish scenario and targets a retest of the 1.5960 lows of last week.
Major trend line support remains at 1.5850 from the 1.5270 lows, as well as 1.5660.
EURGBP ? yesterday?s sharp move lower , below 0.8100 looks to be taking us back to the 50 and 200 day MA support at 0.8055, a break of which could well see a test of trend line support at 0.8015 from the July lows at 0.7755.
While below the 0.8165 level the long term bearish scenario remains intact.
USDJPY ? yesterday?s move higher was unable to take out the resistance highs above 82.65 keeping the recent channel range intact.
We now have a potential treble top sloping pattern on the four hourly charts with the base at 81.65. If we break below 81.60 then the potential is there for a move towards 80.50, and even 79.90.
We need a break above the 82.80 level to target a move towards the March highs above the 84.00 level.
Only below the 80.50 level suggests a move back towards the November lows at 79.00.
Equity market calls
FTSE100 is expected to open 15 points higher at 5,916
DAX is expected to open 23 points higher at 7,557
CAC40 is expected to open 16 points higher at 3,618